Insurance is free, Automobile became cheaper, FMCG is also cheap now. So what is the truth? Where did the TV and Media trap you? Let’s look at insurance industry where GST was reduced from 18% to 0%. I also felt positive about it but now the company has no input tax credit available. Earlier, we used to pay tax and we would take credit for it. Now credit has stopped, so their interest rate is 5 to 7% along with the expenses part, which got increased. On top of that, the ministry’s pressure is to pass on the entire benefit to the customer, which means the customer benefits but the companies profit margins will decrease. This is why stocks like SBI Life, HDFC Life ticked up initially but could not sustain the ralley. Same happened with automobiles and FMCG too. In FMCG, we can see the demand number and it will easily take two-three quarters to get back with growing consumption numbers. Due to GST reduction, the market will get short term result but the rally cannot be sustained immediately. 50% tariff on all orders given by Donald Trump is having an impact on India. After the speech by Prime Minister on 15th August 2025, the news of cut was going on which was already gapped up. Additionally with global pressure and FII selling, the market has crashed. So simply the GST Reform is positive in long term and also profit booking along with margin pressure in short term, made the market red. I think big pullback will be seen in the current fiscal. For the rest of the year, there will be a pullback in government capex because tax collections are already weak and obviously after such a big GST cut, there will be further weakness in tax collections. Now the government will focus on encouraging consumption. At the same time RBI will have to issue rate cut. I don’t think we have a choice. Clearly the selling pressure has been very high. There is an attack on asset quality. Meaning there is clear pressure on asset quality. I think that apart from HDFC, ICICI and SBI, I think we will see tremendous asset quality detoration. It will be visible in both banks and NBFCs. Also there are heavy layoffs in Tech Sector specifically which will eventually impact the household debt, which is at an all time high, if we now take household debt to GDP of India, then the RBI data clearly shows that the situation is quite bad. So NPAs, first on check bounties, on deleveraging. So barring the two three players HDFC, ICICI, SBI, I think the rest of the banking sector will face pressure on both sides of the balance sheet. Firstly, there will be problems in raising deposits and secondly the NPAs. So it’s a long term journey and will have to wait till it sustains back to normal again. Do share your views of any.
India’s Tariff Resilience: Dugna Lagan or 50% Tariffs India’s spirit has never bowed, and never will.
Setting the Stage: Global Tariff Turmoil vs. Indian Poise Across the globe, countries are scrambling under rising tariffs, grappling with trade wars and shrinking markets. Yet India remains undeterred. While others bow under pressure, India—echoing its entrepreneurial and historic spirit remains defiant, independent, and resilient. Historical Backbone: Echoes of “Dugna Lagan” The term “dugna lagaan” (double tax) resonates deeply, rooted in colonial-era exploitation. Popularized in the classic film Lagaan, the line, “Tum bolo. Dugna lagaan doge ki sharat manzoor hai?” (“Will you accept paying double tax?”) symbolizes unyielding resistance India Pop Trends. Similarly, Gujju traders, historically known for their grit, personify this spirit—enduring burdens yet surging ahead. India Now: Tariff Defense with Grit Modi’s Defiance Amid Tariff Storm Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared emphatically: “India will never compromise on the interests of its farmers, dairy sector, and fishermen. I know I will personally have to pay a very heavy price for this, but I am ready.” ReutersThe Guardian. His stance underscores a leadership prioritizing national interest above expediency. Piyush Goyal: “India Will Not Bow Down” Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal responded swiftly to the U.S.’s 50% tariffs: “India will not bow down.” He assured that the government is splitting export channels and courting new markets, maintaining a “very open mind” toward resolving trade rifts amicably The Economic Times+1Reuters. Rajnath Singh: A Veiled Rebuttal to Trump’s Tariff Jabs Without naming any country directly, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh delivered a sharp rebuke: “Some ‘boss’ is jealous, unable to accept India’s growth.” He further asserted: “No power can stop India’s rise.” The Times of India. This sentiment reverberates strongly with Gujju traders—used to overcoming odds through enterprise and persistence. The Trump Tariff Saga & India’s Stand Under mounting pressure from U.S. tariffs escalating to a staggering 50% India kept its energy choices firm, especially its continued purchases from Russia. India’s Growth Narrative: Unstoppable Momentum India isn’t just withstanding the storm it’s expanding. Renewed investment from Japan, increased digital and manufacturing capacity, and energy diversification all affirm this. The Atmanirbhar Bharat (Self-reliant India) vision—rooted in Gandhi’s Swadeshi movement—drives home-grown industry and global exports. Today, India has become the top smartphone exporter to the U.S., outpacing China, thanks partly to the Make in India/Make for the World push Wikipedia. Conclusion: The Gujju Way Forward For Gujju traders whose legacy spans resilience and commercial acumen, India’s response to tariffs is emblematic of their spirit. Unlike others bowed by pressure, India stands tall paying what’s necessary, yet forging ahead. From the echoes of “dugna lagaan” to fighting real-world “lagaan” from tariffs, India’s growth journey continues. With supportive governance, strategic policy, and a legacy of perseverance, India’s trajectory is not just resilient it’s unstoppable.
Why the Market Fell Constantly in the Last Week of August As Predicted by Gujju Traders
Why the Market’s Late August Fall Was No Surprise ‘Gujju Traders’ Prediction Decoded The last week of August 2025 proved to be a turbulent one for Indian equities. While global cues added to the volatility, Gujju Traders had already flagged the possibility of a sustained decline. The prediction was rooted in clear economic and political signals that many ignored but seasoned investors could not afford to miss. Let’s decode the reasons in detail. 1. Government’s Failure in Negotiations with Trump on Tariffs One of the most critical triggers was the government’s inability to negotiate effectively with U.S. President Donald Trump on the proposed tariff hikes targeting Indian exports. 2. GST Cut – A Misinterpreted Signal The announcement of a GST cut should have been a celebratory moment for businesses and consumers. However, sharp investors saw it differently. 👉 Investor Psychology: Markets don’t just react to numbers; they react to confidence. The GST cut, instead of being read as a bold reform, was interpreted as a defensive compromise. 3. FIIs Read Between the Lines Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), often the quickest to respond to global developments, were swift in their reaction: 4. Domestic Investors Followed the Sentiment Retail and domestic institutional investors (DIIs) initially supported the market with steady buying. But as the news cycle kept focusing on “Failed Negotiations” and “hidden signals of GST cuts,” even domestic participants started booking profits. This psychological chain reaction amplified the sell-off. 5. Technical Breakdown Confirmed the Fall Markets also confirmed weakness on the technical side: Gujju Traders’ Prediction Came True Weeks before the fall, Gujju Traders highlighted these clues: Conclusion – Lessons for Investors The constant market fall in the last week of August wasn’t a random event. It was a result of failed negotiations, policy misinterpretation, and investor psychology. For smart investors, this was not a surprise. The writing was on the wall, and Gujju Traders had already cautioned about the possible downside. 👉 Investor Takeaway: Markets are not just about numbers they are about reading signals, policy tones, and hidden messages. Those who paid attention to the GST cut clue understood that the government was signaling weakness, not strength. 📌 At Gujju Traders, our philosophy remains clear: Decode the signals before the crowd does.
Market Advisory Alert: Prepare for Volatility Amid Tariff Concerns
Dear Valued Clients, In light of recent developments and speculation around potential tariff impositions, Gujju Traders issues this important advisory to guide investors through expected market behavior and recommended actions. As always, our objective is to protect capital, manage risk smartly, and prepare for tactical opportunities. What to Expect If Tariffs Are Announced: Should news of tariff imposition materialize, market sentiment is likely to turn cautious and fragile. Historically, such events tend to trigger a short-term risk-off scenario, particularly impacting SmallCap and MidCap segments, which are more vulnerable to institutional or operator exits. Strategic Advice from Gujju Traders: 1. Book Profits on Green Positions: If your portfolio has stocks currently trading in the green, it is advisable to book partial or full profits. Holding cash during volatile sessions gives you the power to act when the opportunity arises. 2. Exit from Narrow Loss Positions: Positions that are at a marginal loss can be booked proactively. This not only prevents deeper cuts but also unlocks capital that can be deployed to buy high-quality stocks at lower valuations post-correction. 3. Don’t Panic, Manage Risk: This advisory is not meant to instill fear but to enforce disciplined risk management. Volatility is a part of the market, but how we respond to it makes all the difference. 4. Avoid Fresh Entries Today: New trades or investments can be deferred until the market digests the news flow. Let the dust settle before positioning for the next move. Gujju Traders’ Commitment: We at Gujju Traders continue to monitor real-time market developments and are committed to delivering timely insights to our clients. Our in-house analytics and operator activity tracking help identify trends before they become headlines. Stay updated via the Gujju Traders App – Your Trading Partner, and don’t hesitate to reach out for portfolio consultation or intraday strategy advice. Stay Safe. Stay Disciplined. Stay Profitable. Warm regards,Team Gujju Traders Disclaimer: This is a market opinion intended for educational and risk management awareness. Please consult your financial advisor before making any trading decisions.