Genus Power Analysis 2025 – ₹31,300 Cr Order Book, Govt 250M Meter Vision, P/E ~40× & FY30 Growth Targets
Dive deep into Genus Power: ₹31,300 cr smart-meter order book, Q3/Q4 FY25 results, alignment with Gov’t RDSS mission (250M meters by 2027), and stock price targets up to ₹1,676 by 2030.
1. 📦 Order Book Update: ₹31,300 Crore (as of Dec 2024)
- The total order book (including GIC-backed platform and SPVs) reached approximately ₹31,302 crore as on December 31, 2024, reflecting robust contract wins and execution momentum (pv-magazine-india.com).
- By March 31, 2025, this stood at ₹30,110 crore, backed by 8–10 year concession contracts under the AMISP model (business-news-today.com).
2. 🏛️ Government Vision & Official Mandates
🔹 National Smart Meter Mission & RDSS Push
- Under the Revamped Distribution Sector Scheme (RDSS), the government has allocated ₹3 lakh crore (with ~₹97,600 crore earmarked for prepaid smart meters).
- The official target: 250 million smart meters installed by FY27–28 to reduce AT\&C losses to 12–15% .
🔹 Company Leadership on Vision
- Genus Chairman:
“Government of India … plan to install 250 million smart meters by 2027 with estimated investment of USD 30 billion.”
- Jt MD Jitendra Agarwal (on GIC platform JV):
“We look forward to contributing to India’s sustainability goals … via Time of Day metering recently announced by Government of India.” (cnbctv18.com)
3. 📊 Quarterly & Annual Financial Performance
Q3 FY25 (ended Dec 2024)
| Metric | Q3 FY25 | YoY Growth |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₹604.2 crore | +133% |
| PAT | ₹68.2 crore | >5× |
| (pv-magazine-india.com) |
Q4 FY25 (ended Mar 2025)
| Metric | Q4 FY25 | YoY Growth |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₹936.8 crore | +123% |
| EBITDA | ₹208.5 cr (22.3%) | +276% |
| PAT | ₹129.3 crore | >4× |
| (angelone.in) |
FY25 Annual Standalone
- Revenue: ₹2,442 crore (+104% YoY)
- EBITDA: ₹469.9 crore (+247%), Margin ~19.2%
- PAT: ₹298.2 crore (+297%)
(angelone.in)
4. 💰 Valuation Metrics & Market Capitalization
- Market Cap (Jun 2025): ₹11,000–11,500 crore
- P/E Ratio (TTM): ~39.7×, forward ~30–35×
- P/B Ratio: ~7×; ROCE ~19% in FY25 (angelone.in)
- Zero Net Debt & Strong Cash Flow Forecasts — aided by GIC/DFC funding of ~\$49.5 M
5. 🔝 Growth Roadmap & Multi-Year Targets
| Year | Revenue Target | PAT Target | Key Drivers |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY26 | ₹4,000 crore | ₹500–600 crore | Meter ramp-up, AMISP, ToD metering |
| FY27 | ₹6,000 crore | ₹900+ crore | 150M meters deployed, recurring O\&M |
| FY28–30 | ₹8,000–10,000 cr | ₹1,200–1,500 cr | EV/solar metering, exports, analytics |
- Govt mandate for 250M meters by FY27–28 supports execution volume (reddit.com, business-news-today.com, reddit.com)
- Production capacity: 16M meters/year, scalable to 30M+ with new plants
- Strategic forays: EV/solar/ToD metering & overseas markets
6. 🔍 Stock Price Targets (2024–2030)
According to analyst FullOrissa projections:
- 2025: ₹655 | 2026: ₹798 | 2027: ₹954
- 2028: ₹1,258 | 2029: ₹1,489 | 2030: ₹1,676 (fullorissa.com)
7. 🤝 Peer Comparison
| Company | Market Cap (₹cr) | P/E (TTM) | ROE FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genus Power | ~11,000 | ~40× | ~17% |
| HPL Electric | ~1,200 | 20–30× | ~12% |
| Schneider India | ~10,500 | 50–55× | ~18% |
| L\&T E\&A | ~400,000 | ~30× | ~15% |
Genus’s premium valuation is justified by its massive P/L order visibility, zero debt, and high ROCE.
8. ⚠️ Key Risk Factors
- Execution delays: deployment speed vs order inflow
- Margin pressure from competitive tendering
- Policy shifts in RDSS timelines/subsidies
- High valuation susceptible to market sentiment swings
🎯 Gujju Traders Verdict
- Aligned with India’s 250M smart-meter policy strong governmental backing
- Robust ₹31,300 crore+ order book, impressive YoY growth, strong margin expansion
- Multi-year targets well supported REVENUE to ₹10,000 crore and PAT ₹1,500 cr by 2030
- Fair premium valuation on the back of future-scale, recurring services, equity-lite model
Conclusion: Genus Power is a policy-driven, growth-led, zero-debt, mid-sized infrastructure-tech stock with clear visibility and high multi-year upside. Ideal for long-term portfolios targeting India’s utility transformation.