NSDL Enters the Ring, Is CDSL Ready for a New Challenger?
📌 1. NSDL IPO – The Latest Update
- Price band: ₹750–₹800/share, revised from earlier rumors of ₹233–₹245 reddit.com+15unlistedzone.com+15livemint.com+15
- Expected market cap: ~₹14,000–₹15,000 crore
- FY25 Financials:
- Revenue: ₹1,420 Cr
- PAT: ₹343 Cr
- EPS ₹17.15 → Implied P/E ~44× reddit.com+3unlistedzone.com+3altiusinvestech.com+3
📊 2. NSDL vs. CDSL – Business & Financial Metrics
| Metric | NSDL (FY24–25) | CDSL (FY25) |
|---|---|---|
| Demat Accounts | 3.15 crore | 8.3+ crore reddit.com+15livemint.com+15sureshgopalan.in+15unlistedzone.com |
| Revenue | ₹1,420 Cr | ₹1,082 Cr |
| PAT | ₹343 Cr | ₹526 Cr |
| Profit Margin | ~24% | ~49% average |
| EPS | ₹17.15 | ₹25.20 |
| P/E (IPO vs Listed) | ~44× | ~70× (NSE ₹1,779) |
| P/B | ~16× (high) | ~16–22× |
🔍 3. Strengths & Weaknesses
- NSDL Strengths:
- Higher custody value (foreign portfolios) equentis.com+15livemint.com+15sureshgopalan.in+15
- Strong revenue (~₹1,420 Cr)
- Reasonable IPO valuation (44× vs CDSL 70×)
- NSDL Weaknesses:
- Fewer retail accounts
- Lower margins (~24%) vs CDSL’s ~49%
- CDSL Strengths:
- Massive retail adoption & volume growth reddit.com+11sureshgopalan.in+11unlistedzone.com+11altiusinvestech.com+7livemint.com+7reddit.com+7unlistedzone.com+1reddit.com+1
- Asset-light model, superior profit margins gurufocus.com+6altiusinvestech.com+6sureshgopalan.in+6
- EPS of ₹25.20, yet high valuation gurufocus.com+15equentis.com+15gurufocus.com+15
- CDSL Weaknesses:
- Expensive valuation (~70× P/E vs median ~47×) simplywall.st
- Market dependent performance, potential for volatility reddit.com
💬 Market Pulse & Reddit Sentiment
“Stock has been rising steadily without correction… P/E surpassed two standard deviations of average, overvalued” reddit.com+3reddit.com+3reddit.com+3
“NSDL’s P/E 44× vs CDSL 65× … limited upside ahead of listing” sureshgopalan.in+11unlistedzone.com+11altiusinvestech.com+11
📌 4. Gujju Traders Verdict
✅ Value Perspective
- NSDL IPO at ~44× P/E offers a discounted entry vs CDSL, making it a clever value play.
⚠️ Growth Perspective
- NSDL lacks CDSL’s retail momentum and margin strength, which limits upside potential.
🧮 5. What It Means for You
- Conservative & Long-Term: NSDL IPO looks attractive, given brand equity, infrastructure stability, and modest valuation.
- Growth-Oriented: CDSL remains premium but offers greater catch-up potential due to retail expansion dynamics.
🔜 6. What Should Gujju Traders Clients Do?
- Apply in the ₹750–₹800 NSDL IPO price band for potential long-term upside.
- Monitor CDSL’s P/E may correct if markets rotate away from high-multiples.
- Track metrics like retail demat growth and processing volume key drivers for both.
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